The Brexit Effect on The Advertising Market
25/09/2019 9:22 PM
By Tony Emment
Its no great surprise that the biggest single issue for brands at the moment is the impending Brexit and how they should approach their advertising pre 31st October and post 31st October. The question is “Do you know what to ask your media agency?”
The Forecasts
Let's look at the outline for 2019 updated forecasts for the media market covering digital, TV, OOH, press, radio, and cinema based on scenario 1 “orderly Brexit” and scenario 2 “no deal Brexit”.
21B
The UK advertising industry is a large contributor to the UK economy with revenue of +£21B, contributing over £4.2bn to the economy each year.
96K
The UK advertising industry is employs 96,000 people (63% women), 19,000 of whom are self-employed.
3.
Approx. 14% of the UK industry’s workforce come from the EU, this is more than twice the national average.
With our seemingly cast in stone ‘Brexit Day’ only 5 weeks away the market is still currently uncertain as to the effects on the UK advertising market.
We aren’t looking further than six to eight weeks ahead; the market is too volatile” “If no deal happens then we will prepare as best as we can.
The advertising industry’s fortunes are very much wedded to the UK economy, and those of its customer base. So, given the uncertainties of Brexit and the sluggish UK economy, it is somewhat surprising that advertising sales have remained resilient in Q1& Q2 2019, however many brands still have a cautious approach to their advertising as we approach 31st October.
Are we now to expect a pre and post Brexit slump? After the 2016 result was announced up to a fifth of agencies reported losses in business.
With all this mind we believe the UK advertising agencies have to offer more guidance to their clients.
Advertiser concerns have remained consistent in 2019, this is leading advertisers to look at short quick bursts for their brands rather than long term planning. We do not advise this as a strategy and for many we have already placed contingencies in place to lessen the risk. Agencies need to be explaining to their clients that short quick bursts are not an effective route to grow brands.
The UK Advertising Market
Based on our industry intelligence the full year outlooks for advertising spend in both 2019 and 2020 are now cautious compared to earlier predictions. However, agency figures still show predicted growth in 2019.
We at 23 Media Audits are little more sceptical. Within traditional media TV, Radio, Print, Cinema and OOH we would expect to see a decline of -0.5% based on an orderly Brexit and -2.1% in a no deal scenario due to estimated declines in TV. For Digital advertising however, we are still predicting growth in revenue for both scenarios of 10.4% and 7.9% respectively.
Scenario 1 – An orderly Brexit
Scenario 2 – A no deal Brexit
Want to know what to ask your agency? download our Brexit planning checklist for further insight.